By Jeff Green
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Winnebago Industries Inc., Thor Industries Inc. and other U.S. recreational-vehicle makers will probably say shipments fell in 2007 for the first time in six years, a sign the U.S. economy may be headed for a recession.
For the past three decades, deliveries of motor homes and travel trailers have dropped before each decline in the U.S. economy, giving the $15 billion industry a reputation as a bellwether. As the U.S. housing slump worsens, gasoline prices rise and consumer confidence wanes, RV sales are forecast to slide this year and next.
Recreational vehicles ``are at the swing end of discretionary spending because no one needs an RV, and certainly no one needs a new RV,'' said Ron Muhlenkamp, whose Muhlenkamp & Co. fund manages about $1.8 billion including shares of Winnebago, the biggest motor-home maker, and Thor, the maker of Airstream trailers. Muhlenkamp started unloading shares in 2006.
A University of Michigan forecast for the RV industry in June predicted 2008 sales would rise 3.5 percent; a revised version of the forecast today swung to a 4.8 percent decline. The revised 2008 outlook was released during the industry's largest trade show, which began today in Louisville, Kentucky.
READ MORE: Bloomberg
